Methodology — Forint Index

Overview

The Forint Index (FI) measures the overall strength of the Hungarian Forint (HUF) against a weighted basket of major currencies. Inspired by the methodology behind the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), it provides a single number that captures whether the Forint is strengthening or weakening relative to its key trading partners.

A value of 100 represents the baseline (reference point). Values above 100 indicate a stronger Forint, while values below 100 indicate a weaker Forint compared to the reference date.

Currency Basket & Weights

The index uses six currencies, weighted by their economic importance to Hungary:

EUR — Euro 50%
USD — US Dollar 20%
CHF — Swiss Franc 10%
GBP — British Pound 10%
PLN — Polish Zloty 5%
CZK — Czech Koruna 5%

Calculation Formula

For each currency in the basket, the relative change from a reference date is computed, then weighted and combined:

FI = 100 × ∏ (R_ref / R_now)^w_i

Where:
  R_ref = Reference exchange rate (HUF per unit)
  R_now = Current exchange rate (HUF per unit)
  w_i = Weight of currency i in the basket

When R_now is higher than R_ref (meaning more HUF is needed to buy 1 unit of foreign currency), the index decreases — indicating a weaker Forint.

Color Coding

All visual indicators follow a Forint-first perspective:

Green (+) — The Forint has strengthened
Yellow (0) — The Forint is stable
Red (−) — The Forint has weakened

Data Sources

Exchange Rates: Sourced from the European Central Bank (ECB) via the Frankfurter API. Rates are updated daily on ECB business days.

Economic Indicators: Sourced from Eurostat, the official statistical office of the European Union. Indicators include GDP growth, inflation (HICP), unemployment rate, 10-year government bond yields, industrial production, government debt, and current account balance.

MNB Base Rate: The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) base rate schedule and rate history are maintained based on official MNB announcements.

Economic Factors

The Forint Strength Factors section analyzes 9 key macroeconomic indicators to determine overall pressure on the Hungarian Forint. Each indicator is classified as:

▲ Bullish — Supports a stronger Forint
— Neutral — Limited impact on Forint direction
▼ Bearish — Suggests weakening pressure on Forint

The overall sentiment bar aggregates these signals to provide a composite view of fundamental pressure on the currency.